Retirement: A Journey of Continued Relevance and Learning
It has been three years since I retired from paid work. It is probably a good time to look back and see how I have been faring.
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Retirement brought me a new perspective on life. For those already retired, considering it, or even far from it, there are insights here for you.
No Mandatory Retirement
At 65, I retired from Australian academia at the end of 2020. My initial struggle to disconnect saw me on campus several days a week, wrapping up research and mentoring PhD students. Three years on, I still visit weekly for a remaining student.
Staying Relevant
When in regular employment, the work defines your relevance. Even if all one does after work is watch TV, you are still relevant because someone pays for your effort during the day. Post-retirement, the challenge was staying relevant without the structure of a job. While I considered returning to consultancy, leveraging my previous experience, I chose a different path. I wanted to learn and explore beyond my existing expertise, something consultancy wouldn’t allow.
Exploring Software: The Flutter Journey
In 2022, I embarked on learning Flutter, reigniting my early career interest in software. This was cut short by the advent of ChatGPT in December 2022. Its potential redirected my focus towards Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPT) and Large Language Models (LLMs). There were two reasons for this redirection: (a) GPT/LLMs were more interesting; and (b) Learning Flutter was no longer essential because basic programming tasks in any language including Flutter would be done by a GPT in the future. The "AI Stuff" pages I post every other week report on my progress.
Blogging: A Tool for Learning and Connection
Blogging has been a long-standing hobby, from technical blogs to my current Substack page started in March 2022. For me, it is a tool to learn and a way to maintain a connection with the world at large. Every post is a journey into new topics, keeping me engaged and informed.
Travel and Reading: Balancing Wanderlust with Wisdom
"Which holds the key to wisdom's vast domain:
The journeyed paths beneath the traveler's feet,
Or the rich worlds through pages' silent gain?"
(A flowery rendition by ChatGPT of a Turkish proverb)
Travel, restricted in 2021 due to COVID, and reading have been my gateways to wisdom. Those who read my past China Notes know that I like to travel and see. Not with COVID.
As for reading, while I initially attempted scientific and philosophical texts, I realized that fiction resonates more with me at my age. For example, I started Karl Popper but I quit after a few days. My brain is contaminated with brief superficial templates based on what I read in various places and reading the original I probably only concentrate on what match the template and skim through the rest. I wish I had the motivation to read such texts when I was young.
Family: A Different Kind of Relevance
Eleanor’s arrival in September last year reshaped my understanding of family relevance. Being more involved in her care than I was with my son Taylan, I’ve discovered the joys and challenges of grandparenthood. It is a wonderful privilege to watch a baby growing in size and spirit from one day to another. Babies need a lot of care. I am glad that I am here this time helping my wife in providing relief to our children, Taylan and his wife, Yi.
Conclusion
Reflecting on these three years, I find satisfaction in the balance I’ve struck. My continued academic commitments, blogging, learning AI, and being an active grandfather leave little room for idleness. This is precisely where I want to be.
References
China notes in an earlier blog
Short Takes
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ACES Delta's Hydrogen Electrolyzers
Power Magazine, 26 October 2023, Sonia Patel
I noted in an earlier post that US Government is funding large-scale hydrogen energy infrastructure. The technology gaps are becoming painfully obvious in the process. The joint venture between Mitsubishi Power Americas and Magnum Development, ACES Delta, is an excellent example. This project aims to create a hub for producing, storing, and delivering green hydrogen to the Western United States. However, the fact that ACES Delta had to import its electrolyzers from China indicates a reliance on Chinese technology for critical components. An ACES Delta 220-MW electrolyzer is a collection of 40 x 5.5-MW high-pressure alkaline electrolyzers manufactured by HydrogenPro in Tianjin, China. The following image shows electrolyzers delivered to the giant renewable hydrogen hub in Delta, Utah, in October 2023.
Assuming this being the state-of-the-art technology, I wanted to compare its reported performance against some of the numbers circulated in the academia on electrolyser efficiencies.
HydrogenPro suggests its third-generation electrolyzer technology could deliver a levelized cost of hydrogen of $1.20/kg (with an assumed electricity price of $20/MWh). At 100% load, the electrolyzers “provide a capacity for almost 100 metric tonnes per day of hydrogen production using about 200 gallons of water per minute.”
I computed the electrolyzer efficiency assuming the cost of electricity to be the only production cost. This will underestimate the efficiency if there are significant costs in addition to the cost of electricity.
H2cost=1.20 # $/kg
H2LHV=120.0 # MJ/kg
ElecCost=20.0 # $/MWh
H2_Energy_Consumption=H2cost/(ElecCost/1000)
eta=H2LHV/(H2_Energy_Consumption*3.6)*100
If the cost of electricity is given as ElecCost=20.0 kWh/kg, then the cost of electricity to produce 1 kg of Hydrogen is 60.00 kWh/kg. Therefore, the efficiency, eta
, is 55.6%
The academic papers use electrolyser efficiencies of 65% or higher in their economic scenario generations. Those numbers look optimistic compared to the above calculation. If you are aware of commercial electrolysers at this scale offering higher efficiencies, please let me know in the comments.
Another observation that can be made about the paragraphs above is how difficult it is to decouple the US economy from China. Two economies are united by intricate ties in many sectors. This actually should give hope to those who want world peace to continue.
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Local Government Debt in China
The East Is Read, Substack, 22 December 2023
Professor David Daokui Li is the Mansfield Freeman Chair1 of the Department of Finance of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University. He made a presentation at Tsinghua University on Oct. 25 about the Local Government Debt in China.
Froms this presentation, I learn that the local government debt in China is difficult to estimate because it has a cascaded structure. Typically, local governments register a parent company, such as a local government financing vehicle (LGFV). This parent entity secures financing with, say, 30-40% comprising borrowed capital and 60-70% being its own funds. This parent company then invests in a subsidiary, which in turn borrows more and invests in a sub-subsidiary, and so on. Meticulous analysis by Professor Li and his PhD student revealed that in 2020, China's local government debt approached 90 trillion yuan (12.49 trillion U.S. dollars), equating to 88% of the GDP at that time. This estimation significantly surpasses those commonly cited by most scholars. For instance, the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank typically estimate it around 60 trillion yuan (8.33 trillion U.S. dollars), roughly 50% of the GDP.
Professor Li and his student examined the finances of the local governments and discovered that, without central government intervention, local debt is unsustainable.
A total debt of 90 trillion yuan is an absurd number. It is 75000 yuan per person for the 1.2 billion Chinese living in Republic of China. This is not a trivial amount. I stayed in Luoyang for five months in 2019. This was the annual salary of a typical young mechanical engineer in Luoyang at that time. There are various alternatives available to the Central Government but they require changing some of the basic tenets of the society. I am hoping that the governments will manage to get out of this mess which they themselves are partly responsible for.
The You Tube video
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In this video, Cyrus Janssen talks about a speech made by General George Yeo, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Singapore, on China-Taiwan relations at the Asia-Pacific Forum, September 13, 2023. Describing the current situation as dangerous and like a ticking bomb, Yeo proposed unification of China and Taiwan within the framework of a 'Commonwealth'. 'Two states, two regimes, one Commonwealth'. Like England and Australia, for example.
I do not think that China will launch a military attack on Taiwan under normal circumstances, but may feel compelled to do so to counteract US actions and the provocation of some politicians in Taiwan. That's why any solution that will solve this ticking time bomb situation is very valuable. Yeo's proposal seemed original to me. Cyrus Janssen would probably not have made this video if he had not believed that Chinese administrators would favour it. Of course, I don't know what Taiwan's executives think.
PS: On Saturday, 13 January, Taiwan had an election and the current president won. Lai garnered only 40% of the votes in Taiwan's first-past-the-post system, and his party lost its parliamentary majority. Lai and his party DPP are pro-independence. With a pro-independence president and a mixed parliament, General Yeo’s proposal may gain some traction in Taiwan. Inshallah.
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Diary
Most people enjoy the purple haze of Jacaranda trees. Here are Jacarandas in full bloom on the Universiy of Queensland campus:
I like them too but I think Poinciana has a more subtle beauty. Here is a Robertson street sheltered by Poinciana trees:
The one below is probably one of the oldest on the street and one of the best:
Here is what the canopy looks like from underneath:
When I was taking this picture, the Lubemobile driver came out the garden gate. We chatted about Poinciana trees. He had an appointment but his client was not home. He was an immigrant from Northern China. He said most of his customers who ask for home calls were old people and they never answered calls from unknown numbers on their mobiles because they were scared of scammers. This made it difficult to confirm appointments with them. I said that is not good, he said that is the way it is.
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Pascal Hagi
Pascal gets grumpy every now and then. Just now, Spotify was playing Barış Manço's song 'Ali Yazar Veli Bozar', which is a song that excites Pascal very much. He rushed down from the cage to the table, grabbed my wrist and bit it. The skin didn't come off, but it hurt. It will be bruised tomorrow. Aged skin is fragile. I locked them into the cage. I hope he is repentant.
Late afternoon yesterday, Pascal and Hagi were perched inside the cage and I was working at the desk. Pascal started to chant, 'Mommy, mommy (Mommy, mommy)'. I went and called Meliz. They then had a very nice conversation together. Recording it occurred to me halfway through the conversation:
When he says ‘Baba bye bye, Mommy is here’ Pascal means ‘Baba go, Mommy should stay’.
What I read
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I read Hernan Diaz's "Trust", which shared the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction with Barbara Kingsolver’s Demon Copperhead. I understand sharing the prize is not common but happened before. “Trust” is Diaz’ second book. His first, In the Distance, was published in 2017 and was a finalist for the same prize. Wikipedia: “the story of In the Distance recounts the life of Håkan, a Swedish emigrant who is separated from his brother on their journey to the United States in the mid-19th century. Penniless, Håkan travels across the American West, sometimes in very harsh conditions, with the goal of finding his brother in New York City.“
Some reviews described Trust as an insightful exposé of capitalism. I found it to be a cleverly constructed narrative with intriguing characters. The plot, which remains elusive until well past the midpoint, is more complex than a straightforward critique of capitalism.
Each of the first two sections of Trust is structured as a separate book with a beginning, an end, and its own plot. While I was reading them the abrupt change of style from one to the other reminded me of Cloud Atlas. But I was wrong, it is completely different.
The first section/book, Bonds, is about a rich American financier, Benjamin Rask, who has a reputation as a ruthless stock market wizard. He is married to a woman who is very interesting and talented on her own right. I think this first book of Trust reads like something Henry James would have written, e.g. The Americans. The book is written in third person with many references to differences between American and European attitudes and sensibilities. There is substantial wealth and talk about the wealthy but the main theme seems to be the relationship between Mr and Mrs Rask.
The second book, My Life, is about a rich American financier (yes, a financier again), Andrew Level, who is writing his autobiography. As an autobiography, the section is written in first person. The narrator takes great pains to prove his perspicacity and his interest in common good. The second point is reiterated repeatedly through the mantra that “self-interest, if properly directed, need not be divorced from common good.” His apparently unalloyed belief in the triumph of capitalism and his own self-fulfilled destiny makes Andrew Bevel sound like a caricature of an Ayn Rand character. This may be why some people saw a critique of capitalism in Trust.
The third and fourth sections are the sections that tie the first two books together. A Memoir, Remembered is about Ida Partenza, a Brooklyn girl, the daughter of Italian migrants who met and got married in New York. The last one, Futures, is about Andrew Level’s wife Mildred, where we get to know Mildred the first time in her own voice. It is difficult to tell you more about these sections without giving away the plot. Suffice it to say that many of the ambiguities in the first two sections and the connections between them are revealed in these last two parts.
I must admit that I would have liked to learn more about Ida Partenza and his anarchist typesetter father. But that would have been a different book. As is now, Trust is a journey through varied narrative landscapes, each offering its own unique perspective, and all coming together at the end. Some books I loved reading but they failed to have a satisfying ending. Still others grow on you after you finish them. Trust is in the second group.
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This is what ChatGPT tells me when I asked who Mansfield Freeman is and why there is a chair named after him in a top-tier Chinese University:
Mansfield Freeman (1895–1992) was a notable American businessman and philanthropist, particularly recognized for his contributions to the field of Asian studies and his business success in Asia. He co-founded the American International Group (AIG), one of the largest insurance and financial services corporations in the world.
Freeman's connection to Tsinghua University and the reason for a chair being named after him there are rooted in his deep involvement with China and his dedication to fostering understanding between East and West. He had a long-standing interest in Chinese culture and philosophy, especially in Confucianism, and was a major benefactor of Asian studies in the United States.
His contributions to Tsinghua University, including significant financial donations and support for academic programs, likely led to the establishment of the Mansfield Freeman Chair as a way to honor his legacy and commitment to education and cross-cultural exchange. This chair supports distinguished scholars and educators in their fields, reflecting Freeman's dedication to academic excellence and his belief in the importance of bridging cultural divides.