Living in a Simulation: How Real is Your Reality?
From Ibn Arabi to Elon Musk: How the Idea of Living in a Simulation is Shaping Modern Thought.
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The Andalusi Islamic Scholar Ibn Arabi wrote in the 12th century that we exist in a dream within a dream.
Know that you are imagination, and all that you perceive
and about which you say "that’s not me", is imagination.
So the whole of existence is imagination within imagination
(Ibn Arabi, in Ogunnaike 2013)In modern times, Nick Bostrom argued:
A technologically mature “posthuman” civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one. If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one’s credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3). Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation.
Bostrom, 2003
Effectively,
If you believe that humans civilisations will reach post-human level when they will have practically unlimited computational power; and
If you also believe that many individuals in these post-human civilisations will be interested in running simulations of their ancestors;
You must then believe that there will probably be trillions of concious beings existing in simulated universes created by say a billion post-humans.
If you are a concious being contemplating these issues you are more likely to be living in one of the simulated universes because there are more of them.
These are Bostrom’s arguments. Elon Musk agrees and says that it is billions times more likely that we are living in a simulated environment created by a more advanced civilization. Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson also agrees but sets the odds at 50-50. Other people like Sean Carroll, Sabine Hossenfelder and Roger Penrose disagree.
This is a non-testable hypothesis and therefore a matter of belief rather than science.
I do not think I would mind living in a simulation. It would not make my everyday choices any different but would open the door to interesting speculations.
If I am living in a Simulation
What are the possible corollaries?
First tier, second tier, third tier, …
When the simulated beings in a first-tier simulation become advanced enough, they might decide to create their own simulated universes—forming what we could call second-tier simulations. Similarly, beings in these second-tier simulations could create their own simulations, leading to a third tier, and so on.
This idea is widely accepted by proponents of the Simulation Hypothesis. But there’s an important consequence: with each successive tier, the quality and scope of the simulations are likely to degrade.
Why? Because the computational engine running the first-tier universe would also need to power all the simulations in the lower tiers. No matter how powerful that engine is, it can’t have infinite capacity. To avoid overloading the system or causing a crash, the lower-tier simulations would need to be simplified to reduce the computational load. This could mean less detailed physics, lower resolution, simplified characters or agents, or even slower processing speeds.
Fermi Paradox
With billions of galaxies visible in the sky, it seems incredibly unlikely that we’re the only intelligent life in the universe. There must be others out there. Yet, where are these intelligent aliens? Why is there no evidence of their existence? This paradox was famously posed by physicist Enrico Fermi, and it’s known as the Fermi Paradox.
If we’re living in a simulation, the answer might be tied to the limitations of computational power in our simulation tier. To keep things manageable, our simulated universe might only be designed to support one intelligent species: us. Those billions of galaxies we see through telescopes could be nothing more than a façade, and the speed of light may have been imposed as a hard limit to prevent us from traveling to distant stars and uncovering the illusion.
In fact, this might even suggest that we’re not living in a first-tier simulation. If we’re in a lower-tier simulation, things could get worse as our descendants create their own simulations. Their simulated universes might be so constrained that they’re limited to a single solar system, governed entirely by simplified, Newtonian physics.
Potemkin Universe
Grigory Potemkin was a Russian field marshal and once a lover of Empress Catherine the Great. According to legend, he constructed fake, picturesque villages along the Dnieper River to impress the Empress and conceal the region’s true poverty. The beautiful building facades she admired from her boat were nothing more than a hollow illusion. From this, the term “Potemkin Village” became a metaphor for anything that presents a deceptive front to hide a lack of substance.
If we’re living in a simulated universe, much of what we see around us might be similarly illusory. To conserve computational resources, the simulation might only generate “reality” when we actively engage with it. For instance, the interior of the Earth would only be fully rendered when we drill into it—otherwise, the simulation wouldn’t bother with the details of things that aren’t being observed.
Philosopher George Berkeley famously asked, “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” In a simulated universe, the answer might be: “No.”
Free Will
It’s hard to claim I’m the master of my own decisions if I’m living in a simulation. But the same problem arises if we accept that the physical universe is governed by deterministic laws or that an omnipresent God controls everything. In a simulation, a truly random random number generator might be enough to give a simulated being the illusion of free will.
Many of science’s unsolved mysteries become easier to explain if we consider the possibility that we’re living in a simulated universe. Take, for example, the large portion of our DNA that seems to have no clear function, often referred to as junk DNA. Perhaps this DNA served a purpose in higher-tier universes, but due to limited computational resources in our tier, its utility was removed. Similarly, the elusive dark matter that astrophysicists have been searching for could simply be a byproduct of replacing the rich galaxies of the original universe with Potemkin-like illusions in the simulated tiers.
The Simulation Hypothesis also offers an explanation for the famous Schrödinger’s Cat paradox. In this view, there is no cat—dead or alive—until someone opens the box. The cat’s state only comes into existence when it is observed, just like how a simulation would only render detail when needed.
Of course, none of these speculations are testable. The Simulation Hypothesis itself is untestable, but it’s arguably no more or less fantastical than the idea of an omnipotent Creator or the notion that everything spontaneously emerged from “quantum foam.”
References
Bostrom, N., “Are You Living in a Simulation?”, Philosophical Quarterly (2003) Vol. 53, No. 211, pp. 243-255
Ogunnaike, O. (2013) "Inception and Ibn 'Arabi," Journal of Religion & Film: Vol. 17: Iss. 2, Article 10. Available at: https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/jrf/vol17/iss2/10
Short Takes
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OpenAI o1-preview
12 September 2024
OpenAI released a preview of ChatGPT-o1 last week. I tried it and I am very impressed. I asked the following questions:
A cantilever beam has a circular cross-section. Its diameter is 10mm. Its length is 1 m. A load of 100N is acting on its free end. What is the maximum stress caused in the beam?
You are asked to design a steel beam of circular cross-section. The length of the beam is 1m. The beam is used as a cantilever with one end welded to a steel wall and the other end free. A load of 100N is applied at the free end. The stress in the beam is desired to be equal to 1020 MPa. What should be the sectional diameter?
A mechanical shaft is rotating at 300 RPM. It is transmitting 2kW of power. It is of constant cross-section at a diameter of 10mm. The bending moment is zero. Calculate the required yield strength using the Maximum Shear Stress Theory.
Could you solve this same question using the Australian Standard for rotating mechanical shafts, AS1403?
It answered all questions correctly and with very clear explanations of the intermediate calculation steps. It looks like ChatGPT should easily pass a second-year mechanical engineering Strength of Materials course. This is a fundamental course compulsory for all mechanical engineering students in our university.
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Too much of a good thing?
In a move to limit visitor numbers, Greece set a fee of up to €20 ($22) for cruise ship passengers disembarking at popular islands. Among OECD countries, Greece leads in tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP, with tourism accounting for 25% of its economy. Given that another 50% to 55% of Greece’s GDP comes from government spending, this leaves relatively little room for other economic activities.
In contrast, while Turkey’s total tourism revenue is double that of Greece, it makes up only 12% of the country’s GDP. Government spending in Turkey accounts for around 30% to 35% of the GDP, meaning tourism forms an even smaller part of its non-governmental economy. This suggests Turkey has significant potential to further expand its tourism sector.
Diary
Birdsville Races
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The first time I visited Birdsville was in June 1984. We camped in the very spot where they later built the airport. I can still picture the trees surrounding the area back then, and the breathtaking sight of the red horizon over the Simpson Desert at sunset. As the sun slipped beneath the edge of the world, hundreds of birds rose from the trees, filling the quiet desert air with the haunting sound of their wings. It was my second year in Australia, and my first time in the outback. I was captivated.
The second time I went to Birdsville, I flew in for a project tied to the upgrade of the Birdsville Geothermal Station. The trees were gone. The birds were gone. This time, when the sun set, it did so in silence.
I don’t have any footage of the birds from those early days in Birdsville, but just last week, I captured a moment during my walk—the birds in Cooper Plains Parklands, making a ruckus after sunset.
Belated Haircut
-+-+-+-+ Eddie was in Croatia for a month, and even though he gave me the dates, I totally forgot and missed my chance to get a haircut before he left. My hair hasn’t been this long in years. Last Monday, I checked to see if he was back, but it was his first day and there was a line of like 10 people. I wasn’t about to wait that long, so I tried again on Wednesday and finally got my haircut. Here I am, waiting for Eddie to come over and cut my hair while he finishes up with the last customer:
Emeritus Professors Lunch
-+-+-+-+ At our university, there’s a tradition where the Vice Chancellor invites all the Emeritus Professors to lunch once a year. It’s a great chance to catch up with colleagues from way back. Like every year, this year’s lunch was at Customs House. The building was finished in 1889, originally built to collect customs duties on goods brought into the colony. By the time I moved to Brisbane, the Australian Customs Department had moved out, and the building sat empty until the University of Queensland leased it in 1988. It’s a beautiful spot, and if you click on the image below, you can explore it in 3D.
The lunch was good, but the company was even better. I see people from our School when I’m on campus every Thursday, but this is the only time I get to see some of the others. On my way back to the Queen Street bus station, I thought I’d take a walk along the river but got stopped by this massive construction site:
Mt Gravatt Markets
-+-+-+-+ I had a chat about cherry tomato economics with a tomato stall owner in the markets. They buy their seeds from South Pacific Seeds at the cost of $1 per seed. Each seed grows into a vine with many tomatoes on it, if it does not die along the way. You can also buy a tray of seedlings, $190 for 250 seedlings. Even though this option is cheaper, they prefer individual seeds to minimise waste. He tried making his own seeds but the crop then was of not saleable with varying quality and shape. Here are the tomoatoes I bought from him at $7 per kilogram:
I bought my last simit for six weeks. Ömer and family will be away for six weeks.
You Tube
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I learned from this CBS News video that Turkey is now the world’s third biggest exporter of scripted television series only behind US and UK. According to research company Para-Analytics, which is based in Los Angeles, the international demand for Turkish dramas increased by 184% between 2020 and 2023. The TV series exports earned Turkey $600 million in 2022 and the current number is likely to be higher.
This was a total surprise for me. If I had to guess before watching this video, I probably would put France, South Korea, Japan and India after US and UK before I added Turkey as the seventh.
Pascal Hagi
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Some evenings, we let them join us while watching TV. They love it. Sometimes they love it too much and it becomes difficult to get them back to their room. I use these two rolled carpet squares to steer them without getting bitten by Pascal. At the moment, however, we are just relaxing. Hagi is burrowing into the roll and Pascal is trying to take him out.
What I read
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The Fine Art of Uncanny Prediction, Robert Goddard
This is the second adventure of the accidental but intrepid detective Umiko Wada. We met Wada in the Fine Art of Invisible Detection published in 2021. She is a Tokyo Subway Sarin Gas Attack widow and she discovers her fine detective skills when teamed up with a veteran private eye, Kodaka, who was trying to collect evidence for the sarin gas victims at that time for a compensation suit. Kodaka died in the first book, when Wada decided to continue on her own.
In this book, Wada is ostensibly hired to investigate a missing person but the investigation gets tangled with a conspiracy that has its roots in the conclusion of World War 2 and involves collision between some members of the US occupation forces and the local criminal gangs. The uncanny prediction in the title is the talent of a mysterious woman, referred to as Kobe Sensitive, who becomes an urban legend in Japan after successfully predicting the Kobe earthquake. She called the authorities the day before the Kobe earthquake but no one believed her. Thousands died in that earthquake. She gets involved with Wada’s investigation and I think this involvement adds some depth to the story. I do not know if the story of Kobe Sensitive is based on facts or if it is a pure invention by Goddard. If Murat Tepe is reading this, maybe he can comment.
Maybe because of the supernatural angle introduced by the affairs of Kobe Sensitive but also because this is a Japanese story, the book reminded me of another favourite of mine, Murakami. Goddard’s characters are not as complex as Murakami’s but Goddard’s endings always make more sense than the endings of Murakami’s books.
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AT Index
Click to see the definition of my basket of goods and other parameters. Below are the prices in Turkish liras for the items in the basket on 14 September 2024. The conversion rate is 1AUD=22.68TRY
The first row in the above table are the Australian prices converted to Turkish liras. The second row are the Turkish prices in liras. The last row is the ratio of the two. The following shows the history. The height of the bar represents how more expensive Australia is. If the prices were equal, then the bar height would be 1. If Turkish prices were higher, the bar height would be less than 1.
The code to create the above tables and the plot is in my github repository and can be downloaded if you are interested.