Future jobs for today's children

Is AI really changing the world so much that some of today's work will be transformed or disappear? Will new jobs take their place?

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My Grandfather and Career Paths Through Generations

My grandfather passed away before I was born. I’ve heard from many that while he wasn't formally educated beyond primary school, he deeply valued knowledge and held great respect for educated individuals. I'm sure he was immensely pleased when my father enrolled in Istanbul Technical University (ITU) as a Mechanical Engineer. Around 1945, when my dad was considering ITU, he likely discussed his choices with my grandfather. Engineering, medicine, and law were the prime career paths.

Remarkably, this list remained largely unchanged when I graduated from high school in 1971. And even when my son finished high school in 2005, these professions, along with only a few newer fields like Information Technology and certain science degrees, were still considered strong choices. Essentially, the landscape of desirable professional jobs remained remarkably stable for much of the last century.

The AI Tsunami: A Rapid Shift

That stability is now rapidly eroding. With Artificial Intelligence, we are fundamentally redefining work. When my grandchildren, Eleanor and Hugo, contemplate their careers in about 15 years, they may face a vastly different reality. Fifteen years feels like a short window for such monumental shifts, but AI is distorting our time perception, accelerating change beyond previous experience.

While I find this era of human development exhilarating and feel privileged to witness it, I also understand the fear and uncertainty it can provoke.

Current Ripples, Future Waves

So far, the impact on the job market has been relatively contained. Much of what we've seen – chatbots, image generators, music mashups – falls into the realm of entertainment or novelty. The widely anticipated large-scale disruption of jobs hasn't fully materialized yet.

However, many believe this is merely a delayed reaction, warning that a significant wave of job destruction is imminent.

Diverging Futures: Worriers vs. Optimists

There's sharp disagreement about what comes next.

Some foresee a dystopian future, arguing for urgent measures to slow or control AI development. Others urge us not to be Luddites, drawing parallels to the Industrial Revolution. Back then, they say, the replacement of skilled craftsmen by factories sparked similar fears about the end of work itself. Yet, new, previously unimaginable jobs soon emerged.

Let's call the first group the Worriers and the second, the Optimists.

Among the Worriers, figures like Yuval Noah Harari offer stark, sometimes sensational and unequivocal, predictions—prompting speculation about motivations, such as book sales. Others, like Daron Acemoglu, adopt a more measured stance. They acknowledge AI's inevitability but advocate for governmental intervention to mitigate its negative impacts and protect workers.

My Perspective: Riding the Inevitable Wave

My position is this:

• I believe AI's advance is inevitable.

• I anticipate it will lead to the obsolescence of many current jobs before mid-century.

• However, I also believe that while jobs are lost, AI's potential to boost productivity could bring us closer to an age of abundance, a dream of past generations.

Unlike Acemoglu, I doubt our ability to meaningfully restrict or guide AI’s development. It's less like a controllable invention and more like a force of nature – a hurricane. We can’t stop it, but we can prepare for it. This means focusing on supporting and reorienting those who will be most affected.

Lessons from the Industrial Revolution, Reimagined

History offers valuable lessons here. The Industrial Revolution didn’t just displace skilled artisans; it also democratized access to goods. Mass production made quality textiles, furniture, and tools affordable for ordinary people, items previously exclusive to the wealthy.

During that period, while the skills of craftsmen were devalued by mechanization (factory workers, often recruited from agrarian backgrounds, could produce goods surpassing earlier artisanal quality), a new class of 'knowledge workers' rose to prominence. Engineers who designed and built the machines, lawyers who navigated emerging concepts like copyright, and doctors who ensured the health of the industrial workforce all gained exalted status. Knowledge became the new currency, and its possessors, the new elite.

AI: Democratizing Knowledge, Devaluing Old Expertise

Today, AI is poised to enact a similar democratization, but this time with knowledge and creativity. What once demanded years of specialized training and expensive expertise – legal research, writing, design, coding, medical advice, university-level tutoring – is becoming accessible to anyone with an internet connection.

The AI revolution, much like the Industrial Revolution devalued the lifelong skills of craftsmen, is now challenging the established status of today's knowledge worker. It's devaluing the intellectual labor and expertise that took years, even decades, to cultivate.

The Crucial Question for Tomorrow's Graduates

The critical question now, especially for young people charting their futures, isn't how to halt this transformation.

The real question is: What kinds of skills, roles, and purposes should today’s graduates pursue in a world where both manual and much mental labor are increasingly automated?

Is the question answerable? What information do we need to answer it? I will continue in future posts if I can. Until then I am interested in what you think. Especially, if you know young people preparing to make university choices, I am very interested to know how do you think they are making these choices; or how are you assisting them if you are?

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Comparing Istanbul and Brisbane prices - AT index

Based on my basket of goods, Australia is 53% more expensive this week compared to Istanbul. Both Coles (AU) and Migros (TR) prices are expressed in Turkish liras for the items in the basket on 11 May 2025. I converted Coles prices to Turkish liras at the exchange rate of 1AUD=24.85 TRY.

The trend (the red dotted line) is rising, which means that, since 5 July 2024, the Turkish prices are slowly approaching the Australian prices. Some items, e.g. beef mince, is more expensive than in Brisbane and has been consistently so since I started this chart.

The code to create the above tables and the chart is in my github repository and can be downloaded if you are interested.