A Sinn Féin member became the next First Minister of Northern Ireland

Safe to say that The Troubles finally ended and the peace that came to Northern Ireland with Good Friday is healthy and robust. Here, I try to draw some lessons for the Kurdish conflict in Turkey.

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Northern Ireland's new First Minister is going to be Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill. Sinn Féin used to be the political arm of the Irish Republican Army (IRA). It convinced the rest of the IRA to sign up to a democratic process that brought peace to the Northern Ireland. Since then, all Northern Ireland First Ministers have been Unionists who wanted to stay under British rule. Michelle O'Neill is the first First Minister from a Party that is against the British rule. This does not mean the North is joining the Republic of Ireland. Under the terms of the Good Friday agreement that ended the armed struggle, a referendum is needed and the current polling suggests this is not likely to suceed.

In the following paragraphs, I want to explore any parallels between IRA in Northern Ireland and PKK in Turkey. I am interested if there are any lessons to be learned from the Good Friday agreement and its follow-ups.

The Conflict in Northern Ireland

Before the First World War, Ireland was under British rule. Its population was 3.25m Catholics and 1m Protestants. Protestants were descendants of English and Scottish settlers. They wanted to stay united with Britain. Therefore, they were called Unionists. Most of the Catholics favoured independence. The Irish Republican Army (IRA) was formed straight after the War and started the Irish War of Independence. This war ended up in partitioning of the island into the independent Republic of Ireland and British-controlled Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland was a new political entity created to provide a haven to the Protestants. Its boundaries were drawn by the British Government so that it should have a decisive Protestant majority. This majority was two-thirds Protestant and one-third Catholic at that time. The Catholics trapped in Northern Ireland not only felt isolated from the South but also suffered active discrimination in the allocation of jobs, housing, political rights, and other areas (p 4, McKittrick and McVea).

In addition to their two-thirds majority, Protestants further strengthened their power by gerrymandering and through police repression. This situation continued until 1960s. There is a number of reasons why the uneasy equilibrium in Northern Ireland was transformed into a violent and bloody conflict called "The Troubles" in late 1960s. In summary, these included:

• Traditional industries such as shipbuilding and textiles collapsed causing unemployment.

• Catholics suffered more from the economic hardships because of discrimination against them.

• Election of a Harold Wilson in 1964 ended 14 years of conservative rule in London. Harold Wilson was anti-Unionist and represented a largely Irish Catholic constituency in Liverpool.

• The Irish-Americans who mostly migrated to US at the time of partition were now in positions of influence in their chosen country and provided significant financial and moral support to IRA.

The armed sectarian conflict that came to be called "The Troubles" was triggered by a Protestant group staging a parade in Londonderry. After initial confrontations with Catholics, Protestant groups targeted Catholic neighborhoods, breaking windows and assaulting residents. Similar events occurred in previous years but 1969 was different. Fierce rioting went on for days and the police was ineffective. There was some evidence that sections of the police collaborated with the Protestants. The British government sent the army, which brought a temporary respite from violence.

In all this mayhem, the IRA was not around. In 1969 the IRA was guided by left-wing theory and essentially led from the south of Ireland. It preached working-class unity between Protestants and Catholics. The 1969 riots split IRA into two: the Official and Provisional wings of the IRA. Broadly speaking the Officials were Marxists while the Provisionals were republican traditionalists. The Provisional IRA and Provisional Sinn Féin separated from the Officials and started preparing for battle. Over time, the Official IRA became effectively dormant as an armed group.

This is how the Troubles started and it continued until the Good Friday agreement in 1998. It is estimated that 3500 people were killed in this period. Let us provide a context for this number. The population of Northern Ireland was 1.675 millions in 1998. Considering the Troubles lasted about twenty years, 3500 total killings can be normalised as 7.2 murders for every 100,000 people. This is the population of a city like Australia's Bendigo or Turkiye's Zonguldak. Imagine living in one of these cities with populations around 100,000, suffering 7.2 deaths per year every year for twenty years. This is a horrendous statistic.

The conflict was so violent and the dead were so many that, although it took an impressive coalition of forces, it still was almost a surprise to everyone when it ended in 1998. I am not going to describe the details of the peace process. The British Prime Minister Tony Blair wanted to end the conflict within his tenure. The US President Bill Clinton was personally involved and sent US Senator George Mitchell as his envoy to bring Protestants and Catholics together. Sinn Féin's electoral success started pointing to nationalist paths not including armed struggle. The Protestant firebrand Paisley was getting old and losing influence and saner people like Trimble prevailed. In the final analysis, these details are important but the real reason is that both sides were sick of the conflict and wanted to stop.

The Conflict in Turkey

-+-+-+-+ Unlike Irish, the Kurds had never had a kingdom. The role of the Kurdish Emirates in the Ottoman Empire in 1500s onwards is summarised in Eppel (2008). In his 1908 manuscript, Mark Sykes (of the Sykes-Picot fame) lists 187 tribes, which he counted while travelling 7500 miles in Eastern Turkey at around the turn of the century. Some of these tribes, like the Milli tribe, were quite large and famous but not large enough to act as a common centre of attraction for all the Kurds. Without a recognised leader, individual tribes were relatively easy to manipulate by the Great Powers of the time. Many of the Kurdish tribes refused to collaborate with the British and fought with the Ankara army (Zeyrek, 2013) but there were exceptions. For example, towards the end of the War, a British commander, Major Noel, supported Sheikh Mahmud to establish an autonomous Kurdish State around Mosul against the Ottoman rule. It is a reflection on the vagaries of trusting Great Powers that, shortly after the War, another British commander, Colonel Wilson, took the Kurdish State down and hung Mahmoud (Eskander, 2000). In the first decade of the Turkish Republic, there were several regional uprisings inside Turkey but they were supressed by the Central Government in Ankara.

The Kurdish opposition in Turkey appeared again in 1970s as a part of the revolutionary left movements that spread through the workers and the universities at that time. However, the 1980 military coup put an end to that. The only Kurdish movement that survived the military coup and its aftermath was PKK, which was established in 1978 by Abdullah Öcalan. Aliza Marcus relates that in the summer of 1980, just a few months before the military coup, Öcalan sent word to the PKK militants to get out of Turkey and join him in Syria (Marcus, 2007, p.49).

After the military rule ended in 1983, PKK returned to Turkey and has been leading an armed struggle since then. Since the population of Turkey is much larger than Northern Ireland and the conflict is spread over a longer period, the killing rate is lower than that in the Troubles but still horrific. One report (Şener, 2020) gives the total number of fatalities as 56847. For a population of 85 millions and a duration of 40 years, this corresponds to an annual killing rate of 1.7 killed for 100,000 people.

The Irish Troubles ended five years ago. The Turkish conflict is still ongoing.

Lessons for Turkey

Although every unresolved armed conflict persists for its unique set of reasons, all peaceful reconciliations are similar. In spite of significant differences between the Turkish and Irish conflicts, the peace process in Northern Ireland has lessons that can be useful for peace-seeking people in Turkey. I try to list these lessons below in no particular order:

Lesson 1

The sides in a conflict will have a vision of what they want to achieve. This vision may be achievable by defeating the other side but even then it is difficult. For example, if the following are the Turkish government and PKK visions with no or very little overlap, a peaceful resolution to the conflict is not possible:

If there is no common area in the belief systems, the conflict will not end

In Northern Ireland, it was possible to find an overlap between the conflicting visions and it has been possible to build a peace agreement on that overlap

Even a small overlap may be sufficient to build from towards final peace

Lesson 2

The political and the military arms of the rebels must both be wanting to end the conflict. In Northern Ireland, the partnership between Martin McGuinnes and Gerry Adams helped to achieve this condition. This is contrary to a failed peace process in Turkey in 2013-2015 during which the political party of Kurds seemed to be maintaining an uncompromising policy against the party in power, AK, while the AK Party was trying to negotiate a peace deal with PKK.

The alignment between the military and political arms was easier is Northern Ireland because their members were all living in the same area and some even had double roles. In Turkey, the military arm, PKK, is based in Northern Iraq outside the boundaries of Turkey and therefore alignment is not always assured or it feels like coercion rather than genuine consensus.

Lesson 3

The opposing sides should be able tolerate each other if and when all other points of grievance could be resolved. In Turkey, this is a lot easier because in spite of years of conflict there has not been personalised enmity between Kurds and Turks.

There is a possible solution here

The hostility between the Protestants and Catholics of Northern Ireland were a lot worse but still not bad enough to prevent peaceful co-location.

Solution Prospects: Mission Impossible

As a contrary example, it is difficult to envisage a peaceful resolution between Hamas and Israel. Hamas wants to kill all Israelis and some of the religious right in Israel is not any better.

Lesson 4

The peace process should not be rushed. There should not be preconditions like "All arms must be destroyed before we can talk". In Northern Ireland, the IRA relinquished arms in two stages. First, they buried them in places only they knew; and only after the peace process was near closure the arms were unburied and destroyed.

Lesson 5

External Third Pary help may be very useful. In Northern Ireland, both sides acknowledged the significance of the contributions from US President Bill Clinton and his envoy George Mitchell. At the very least, there should not be external support encouraging one of the sides to continue fighting. It was arguable that when the Turkish government attempted a peace process with PKK, one of the factors that derailed it were the US support for PKK. It is not clear whether US dissuaded PKK from continuing the peace process but it was clear that the US did not encourage PKK towards a peaceful resolution.

Lesson 6

Both the Conservatives and the Labour in Britain were strongly supportive of the peace process and the Good Friday agreement. This is in strong contrast to Turkish experience in 2010s. When AK Party was trying to pursue a peace process, they encountered very strong opposition from the leftist Republican People's Party (CHP) and the right-chauvinist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which were the main opposition parties at that time. It is interesting that after the peace process ended in a particularly bad and bloody struggle, the MHP started supporting AK Party.

Conclusion

If it was possible to end the Troubles in Northern Ireland, it must be possible to end the Kurdish conflict in Turkey, which is much less violent on a per capita basis. Drawing on my understanding of the process in Northern Ireland, I listed some points above which could help the peace-seeking people in Turkey do the same. -+-+-+-+

References

Eppel, M. (2008). The Demise of the Kurdish Emirates: The Impact of Ottoman Reforms and International Relations on Kurdistan during the First Half of the Nineteenth Century. Middle Eastern Studies, 44(2).

Eskander, S. (2000) Britain's Policy in Southern Kurdistan: The Formation and the Termination of the First Kurdish Government, 1918–1919, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 27:2

Marcus, A. (2007). Blood and Belief: The PKK and the Kurdish Fight for Independence . NYU Press. Kindle Edition.

McKittrick, David; McVea, David. Making Sense of the Troubles: The Story of the Conflict in Northern Ireland (p. 60). New Amsterdam Books. Kindle Edition.

Şener, N. (2020). Hürriyet, 4 Eylül 2020.

Sykes, M., The Kurdish Tribes of the Ottoman Empire, The Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland , Jul. - Dec., 1908, Vol. 38 (Jul. - Dec., 1908), pp. 451-486

Zeyrek, S. (2013).The Role of Kurds in the Struggle for the Foundation of Turkish Republic. Tarih Kültür ve Sanat Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(1).

Short Takes

China Solar Boom

-+-+-+-+ Semafor Newsletter, 30 January 2024

China installed 216 GW of solar panels last year, breaking its own record of 87 GW/y that was done in 2022. The total installed solar capacity in China today is 609 GW, way above the 175 GW in USA. The total Australian installed capacity comimg from all sources was 88 GW in 2022. So last year China started renewable power generators two and a half times larger than the total installed capacity in Australia.

BloombergNEF estimated that China accounted for 58% of the world’s new solar and 60% of its new wind capacity in 2023. With the extraordinary investment in renewables the country achieved in recent years, its CO2 emissions are expected to start decreasing in coming years.

I think China is using the renewables investment as a replacement for the construction industry in serving as a principal driver of the country’s economy. There are additional benefits in supporting renewables: (a) the technology can be exported; and (b) the ultimate effect would be making the marginal cost of electricity near zero, the exact implications of which for the rest of the Chinese economy are difficult to assess but have to be positive.

The above does not mean that China stopped using coal. Darrel Proctor reports in Power Magazine that China accounted for nearly all new construction that would use coal, along with 81% of newly announced projects. China has placed more than 191 GW of new coal-fired generation into service over the past five years, or 64% of all new coal power projects that entered operation worldwide from 2019-2023.

China becomes top car exporter

-+-+-+-+ Semafor Newsletter, 1 February 2024

China’s electric-vehicle boom helped it become the world’s top car exporter last year, surpassing Japan, new data showed. According to China’s customs bureau, one third of the cars exported last year were fully electric, a milestone fueled in part by the rise of BYD, which in 2023 became the world’s largest EV maker. BYD’s success forced it to start its own shipping business, MIT Technology Review reported this week, because fleets designed to carry cars are in short supply. As a result of growing demand abroad, Chinese companies could start building more factories closer to their customers, similar to what Japanese companies did in the 1980s, an auto analyst at CLSA told AFP.

Russian Oil exported through Turkey

-+-+-+-+ Since the EU and the G7 imposed curbs on Moscow’s oil trade, Turkey has become a key hub for Russian crude and refined products. It is now the third-largest recipient of Russian crude after India and China, and the biggest market for Russian refined products.

You Tube

-+-+-+-+ Last Saturday was the Lunar New Year, which is celebrated all over in East Asia. The place I live, Brisbane, has a significant fraction of people with East Asian roots. Therefore, Lunar New Year celebration is a significant event in Brisbane. The YouTube clip below is a record of the celebrations in our suburban shopping centre (not where the library is but the other one). It is not a professional recording but provides a good description of the festivities.

Diary

-+-+-+-+ We were invited to our in-laws on Saturday for a Lunar New Year dinner. Xuan (Yi’s mother) did a lot of preparation and we had a sumptuous dinner. Eleanor was a bit surprised but was very happy to have access to two sets of grandparents in the same place. Meliz was our designated driver and she drank very little. Taylan was on call so he did not drink either. Shenming and I had a bottle of good red wine all to ourselves and a couple of beers to polish it up. We talked about many things, including genetics, sugar cane research in Australia, research and academic work in China, etc. It was a good chat and I enjoyed it very much.

-+-+-+-+ The introduction of flora and fauna into the rebuilt UQ Lakes area continues. Last week while walking over the pedestrian bridge going to my office, I saw baby fish in the water. Here they are executing a Brownian motion dance.

First I thought they were tadpoles but they are fish. The ducks already started feeding on them but I hope a sufficient number will grow to adulthood.

Pascal Hagi

-+-+-+-+ Pascal and Hagi are happy in their outdoor space. But I think Pascal is seeking intellectual company. The main bathroom window open to the aviary and Pascal always monitors that window. He comes to its front as soon as someone enters the bathroom. Here he is chatting up Meliz:

What I Read

-+-+-+-+ Brisbane City Central Library operates branch libraries in suburbs. Last week I visited the library branch closest to us. It is in Garden City, the Shopping Centre where I do my weekly shopping. The patrons of the library are in two age groups: younger than 20 and above 60. I do not regularly borrow library books because I prefer picking and reading books on my Kindle. I still go there occasionally to sample what the retirees read these days. The returned books are kept on trolleys before being placed on the shelves and I usually pick a book from those trolleys. Last week, I picked “Midnight Library” by Matt Haig:

It is the kind of book that you can find on supermarket book shelves. In fact, most of the books on display in Brisbane City Council libraries are of the kind that you can buy from supermarkets. This was a book very easy to read with an initially interesting concept. Nora Seed, is a talented loser who, we learn, mucked up every opportunity she was given in her life. She is now in her mid-thirties and she decides to die. I am not giving anything away by saying this because the book starts with the sentence “XXXX hours before she decided to die, Nora did etc etc”.

Anyway, when she thought she was dying, she finds herself in a vast library where the librarian explains that every one of the many many books on the shelves align with one of the small or large decisions she made in her life. Every book describes what would have happened if she had decided differently on decision points of her life.

You can guess what happens next. Nora picks different alternate lives hoping to land in a life stream better than what she wanted to leave behind. She discovers that you cannot leave your life for another one in an alternate universe because you always carry this universe with you.

This could have been a beautiful book but I think Matt Haig is more fit to write young adult fiction and this turned out like one. Easy to read but not too much to be retained afterwards.

-+-+-+-+ The second book I read over the last two weeks is A Quantum Love Story by Mike Chen.

This book was recommended by a Substack blogger that Substack regularly refers me to even though I am not a subscriber. The blogger apparently has the habit of recommending a time loop novel always at around this time every year (the season for the Punxsutawney Groundhog Day as in Bill Murray-Andy McDowell movie). In this book, a technician working in a particle accelerator gets caught in a loop. The time loop is caused by the accelerator exploding. The loop covers the four days prior to the explosion. So it is like Groundhog Day, the movie, but this time the repeating loop lasts four days rather than one. After a few cycles, the technician manages to make a second person to retain her memories of each loop execution. And the rest of the book is a plausible story on the cause of the accident and how they manage to get out of the loop.

This book is also easy to read. Unlike the Midnight Library, I do not think there is much Mike Chen could have done to make this better. It is a simple plot and probably was better suited to a short story format. Nevertheless, I enjoyed reading it and I am sure you would too.